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WTF?!

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The End Of The Smartphone Era Is Coming — Business Insider

First they were in big rooms, then they sat on desktops, then they sat on our laps, and now they’re in our palms. Next they’ll be on our faces.

(Eventually they’ll be in our brains.)

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/the-end-of-the-smartphone-era-is-coming-2012-11#ixzz2DDZvAxb9

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A better way to think about our thinking.

Global Macro Monitor

This is a great lecture presented by Google Talks.  Grab a turkey sandwich and  have a listen.  It may help in understanding your biases and destructive tendencies in trading.

Daniel Kahneman, recipient of the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences for his seminal work in psychology that challenged the rational model of judgment and decision making, is one of our most important thinkers. His ideas have had a profound and widely regarded impact on many fields—including economics, medicine, and politics—but until now, he has never brought together his many years of research and thinking in one book.

In the highly anticipated Thinking, Fast and Slow, Kahneman takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. Kahneman exposes the extraordinary capabilities—and also the faults…

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Are US Treasury bonds jeopardizing upside potential for TAA models? I don’t think so, IMO they are nowhere near to such point. Unless U.S. debt is materially downgraded, UST will always play a role.

Marathon Investor: ноябрьский предпросмотр доходности

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И ещё одна вариация на тему глобального ленивого портфеля

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«Купил и держи весь мир»: http://www.mebanefaber.com/2012/11/08/the-global-market-portfolio/

Источник: Strategic Asset Allocation:  The Global Multi-Asset Market Portfolio благодаря Мебу Фаберу (блог о тактическом распределении активов World Beta)

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А вот классический «перманентный портфель», основанный в 80-е как первая стратегия «рисковового паритета». Сейчас у этой стратегии очень много поклонников, в том числе знаменитый Рей Далио.

CSSA

This graphic is designed to help readers understand the logic and assumptions embedded in the Permanent Portfolio model by Harry Browne. It is also a useful framework for understanding how to construct  regime-based portfolios. The results are re-published from an earlier article written by Corey Rittenhouse at Catallactic Analysis. It was a very good post (and good blog) and is worth reading for more background. Some other very good posts on the subject are:

GestaltU: An interesting three-part series on the Permanent Portfolio and tactical applications:

Systematic Investor: An interesting article on the Permanent Portfolio showing risk parity applications and implementation in R:

1990-2012
Annualized Return
Annualized Volatility
Risk Reward Ratio
Permanent Portfolio
6.06%
6%
1.01
Stocks
7.2%
15.05%
0.48
Bonds
6.25%
11.39%
0.55
Gold
6.23%
15.54%
0.4
Cash
1.86%
1.62%
1.15

Stats by 5 Year Period

1990-1994
Annualized Return
Annualized Volatility
Risk Reward Ratio
Permanent Portfolio
2.49%
5.69%
0.44

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Интересный и наглядный пример составления всепогодного портфеля. Однако, я бы не стал рассчитывать на commodities как средство защиты от инфляции. Почему не заменить на золото и короткие депозиты?

CSSA

The All-Weather Portfolio was introduced by Ray Dalio— the founder of Bridgewater -which is arguably the largest and most successful hedge fund in the world. His landmark concept was to create a portfolio that would have roughly equal risk in four different economic regimes: 1) rising growth 2) falling growth 3) rising inflation  and 4) falling inflation. His other major concept was to leverage up each asset to have the same risk so that returns could come from multiple different sources, and not rely on an equity-centric environment. Of course, it is more accurate to think of each of these as sub-regimes since the change in growth is often accompanied by some change in inflation. Thus, in this adaptation the four major regimes are exactly the same as in the Permanent Portfolio ,the only difference is the type of assets included in each regime. By structuring a…

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Nonlinear Thinking: The New Industrial Revolution – 3D Printing

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3-D принтеры идут к тебе!

Global Macro Monitor

We’ve posted several pieces on 3D printing and have investments in some of the stocks.

This technology is going to be super disruptive.  It will change global trade flows, displace workers, not to mention the several other unknown unkowns.    The BBC reports,

Engineers and designers have been using 3D printing to create prototypes for many years, but falling technology costs are making it increasing accessible to other people.

3D objects are created by sending a digital file or scan to a printer which then builds the item layer by layer — a process know as «additive manufacturing».

The range of objects the technology can manufacture is rapidly expanding — in the medical sector it is being used for dental work, while the fashion industry is experimenting with it to produce clothing.

Rory Cellan-Jones reports for BBC Newsnight.

(click here if video is not observable)

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U.S. Equity Sector ETF Performance

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Коммунальщики отличились! 🙂

Global Macro Monitor

(click here if charts are not observable)

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