Think Tank: El-Erian, Gundlach, Gross, Grantham, Rogers

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Как всегда для развлечения, сильные мнения сильных мира (сегодня на английском).

Jeffrey Gundlach, The DoubleLine portfolio manager:

“the time is ripe” for another AIG or Lehman-level collapse “based upon the growing lack of confidence in the growing debt of Spain, Italy, Greece, Portugal, Ireland and ultimately of France.”

The lesson of the debt ceiling drama in Washington is that “it just doesn’t seem likely we’ll throw another couple of trillion dollars to get temporary growth.”

Источник: Gundlach: Banking Crisis Is ‘Just Like 2008’; Stay Away From Markets By Gil Weinreich, AdvisorOne, August 18, 2011

Jim Rogers:

‘The U.S. Is Bankrupt’. The country can’t kid itself about its debt anymore.

Источник: 5 Best Quotes From Wild Market Month—So Far. By August 12, 2011

Mohamed El-Erian, PIMCO CEO and co-CIO: ‘Debt Dramas and Crises Will Not Go Away Any Time Soon’

Thanks to over-spending by governments, things will not be ‘normal’ for a while.

We should all accept that Europe and America—the former for fundamental reasons and the latter for self-inflicted ones—are now in a de-levering cycle whose consequences will be with us for many years…

Источник: 5 Best Quotes From Wild Market Month—So Far. By August 12, 2011

Bill Gross, PIMCO managing director: ‘Debt Men Walking’

Future liabilities facing the U.S. government are staggering, from his early August outlook “Kings of the Wild Frontier.”

“In addition to an existing nearly $10 trillion of outstanding Treasury debt, the U.S. has a near-unfathomable $66 trillion of future liabilities at ‘net present cost’…

Источник: 5 Best Quotes From Wild Market Month—So Far. By August 12, 2011

Jeremy Grantham, GMO: U.S. ‘Looking Like a Banana Republic’

Due to its own misbehavior, Congress had to act, said investment guru Jeremy Grantham in GMO’s quarterly newsletter released Aug. 1.

Источник: 5 Best Quotes From Wild Market Month—So Far. By August 12, 2011

Grantham’s view on the markets:

As mentioned in previous quarterlies, the main long-term risk is that after two massive bubbles and two equally massive resurrection programs, the Fed may be out of ammunition. Should more building blocks fall (government bond downgrade and further market declines have missed my deadline) and a serious global double-dip develop, then the pattern of market behavior this time may be more historically typical. [emphasis mine] That is, instead of quickly recovering, markets will become cheap and stay below long-term averages for several years as was the case pre-Greenspan. Twenty years is a long time, so most investors think that dipping to fair value for a minute and bouncing is normal. It is, in fact, highly aberrant historically. Markets staying down and washing away a whole generation’s false expectations, high animal spirits, and excessive risk-taking – that would be normal. [emphasis mine] In the long run, a prolonged period of lower priced assets would lead to a much-improved, less risky, and less bubble-prone environment. In short, a more manageable world. It would also mean much higher returns from investing at lower prices. Long-term benefits from short-term pain. Just the kind of trade-off that the children in charge now would never make deliberately. But it may well happen anyway.

Источник: FT Alphaville » The Grantham manifesto by Neil Hume on Aug 10, 2011

Вобщем, букет довольно пессимистичных мнений, которые сводятся к «так жить нельзя». Я уважаю такие мнения, тем более, что они не возникли в разгар нового переполоха на рынке, а скорее переполох подтверждает давние предположения. Ещё раз напомнить, что когда главные вектор — вниз, ни о каком buy and hold и речи быть не может.

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Повторяй за мной: когда стоимость позиции меньше инвестированной суммы, и ты бы зафиксировал убыток, если бы выходил из неё, у тебя НЕТ уважительной причины не продавать. Рынку всё равно, какую сумму ты инвестировал. «Надеяться» на рост не является инвестиционной идеей.

Источник: Not Wanting to Take a Loss is Not a Reason Not to Sell | Kid Dynamite’s World.